[UPDATED 03/08/2016]

While we wait for the current slate of new ammonia plants to start up this year, here’s a reminder of the projects that are still in development across North America.

More than a dozen major ammonia plants are in various stages of planning or financing. None of these have started construction yet. Some have been stuck in limbo for years, while others keep making progress. The project pipeline represents a potential investment of over $20 billion and additional ammonia capacity of more than 9 million tons per year.

Obviously, not every project will move ahead – in fact, conventional wisdom says none will – but new trends are emerging that may influence their success or failure.

A list of the biggest projects follows below, summarizing their evolving costs, pushed-back schedules, and changing EPC contractors. For full details on their individual obstacles and advantages, refer to my Research Note for each project.

In broad terms, I’m seeing four trends affecting project development. First, the continued low purchase cost of natural gas feedstock. Second, the newly low selling price of nitrogen products. Third, the cost of labor, which rose sharply but has now dipped significantly. Fourth, a general movement to scale down to smaller projects, which is perhaps a trade off between economies of scale and the accessibility of debt financing.

Nonetheless, the fundamental economic argument in favor of further expanding the domestic nitrogen industry remains intact, as Bloomberg reminded us recently in an interview with the new CEO of the newly-revitalized Phibro, who is “in discussions about a brownfield fertilizer plant in the U.S.”

“Despite the fact that there’s cheap natural gas, the U.S. is a big net importer of fertilizer, which doesn’t make sense … You look at the price of European gas, and yet we’re importing fertilizer from the Black Sea. It seems contrary to fundamentals.”

There’s little doubt that five new world-scale ammonia plants will start up this year or next, with construction progressing for CF Industries at Donaldsonville, LA, and Port Neal, IA; Dyno Nobel at Waggaman, LA; OCI’s Iowa Fertilizer Company at Wever, IA; and Yara’s joint venture with BASF at Freeport, TX.

But a great deal of uncertainty exists for the other major projects, yet to begin construction, which I summarize below. This is not a complete list: apart from many smaller new plants and expansion projects, I am aware of a number of additional world-scale projects that haven’t made any announcements yet, representing close to another 3 million tons of potential ammonia capacity.

	CAPACITY (*Adjusted)	EPC	PERMIT TO CONSTRUCT	COST orig./latest	START-UP (Estimate)
PENWELL, TX TCEP	None given (395,575 mtpy)	Sinopec, Feb 12 SNC-Lavalin & HQC, Dec 15	Dec 10	$1.73 B $2.5+ B	2016 2019 (2019)
ROCKPORT, IN Ohio Valley Res.	2,420 stpd (927,143 mtpy)	KBR, Sep 12 Sinopec, Dec 13	Sep 13 Mar 15 ext	$952 M $2 B	2016 2017 (2020)
BECANCOUR, QB IFFCO	none given (803,000 mtpy)	Ganotec / Kiewit, Duro Felguera, Jun 15	Apr 14	$1.2 B $2 B $1.7 B	2017 none (2020)
AMERICAN FS., ID Magnida	none given (827,806 mtpy)	KBR & Kiewit, Jul 15	Apr 14 (appeal settled Dec 14)	$1+ B $2.5+ B	2017 (2019)
MT VERNON, IN Midwest / Fatima	2,200 stpd (876,000 mtpy)	ThyssenKrupp, Jan 16	Jun 14 Sep 15 ext	$1.8 B $2.8 B	2017 2020 (2020)
TUSCOLA, IL Cronus	2,200 mtpd (923,500 mtpy)	Tecnimont, Feb 15 and KBR, Mar 16	Sep 14 Dec 15 ext	$1.2 B $1.5 B	2017 2018 (2019)
KILLONA, LA AM Agrigen	None given (993,367 mtpy)	None yet	Apr 15	$1.2 B	2017 2018 (2019)
GRAND FS., ND NPN	2,420 stpd (802,972 mtpy)	None yet	Aug 15	$1.5 B $2.5 B	2017 2018 (2019)
EDGARD, LA EuroChem	None given (985,500 mtpy)	None yet (but MOU Tecnimont, Apr 15)	None yet (applied Sep 15)	$1.5 B $1.6 B	2017 2019 (2019)
BELLE PLN. SK FNA / ProjectN	2,400 mtpd (876,000 mtpy)	None yet	[unknown]	$1.76 B $2.2 B	2017 2018 (2020)
GULF COAST Agrifos / Borealis	None given (800,000 mtpy)	None yet	None yet	None given ($750 M est)	2019 (2019)
TOTAL	*9,210,863 mtpy			$21.25+ B
Data source: https://ammoniaindustry.com, as of 02/11/2016. *Adjusted Capacity data in metric tons per year; assumes operations for 365 days per year. Note that there may be discrepancies between the Adjusted Capacity presented here and numbers announced by the companies; see individual project pages for exact data sources (eg, air permits). See Methodology.